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44 MICROPOWER: THE NEXT ELECTRICAL ERA ELECTRIFYING THE POWERLESS 45 While computers and the Internet may increase electricity demand, they could also displace more energy-intensive activities, and further save energy by selectively employing more efficient small-scale generators.97 Finally, storage technologies can improve micropower reliability by enabling greater use of power from intermittent renewable energy flows. Flywheels, batteries, and superca- pacitors are among the devices under development and entering commercialization. Eventually, hydrogen may be produced through the splitting of water by renewable ener- gy-derived electricity. Some analysts foresee a hydrogen delivery system emerging quickly with the proliferation of fuel cell cars, much as the ICE cars drove demand for oil. While the networks of micropower, hydrogen, and natural gas will need to be coordinated, the end result may be a sys- tem that is more reliable—and more compatible with the information age—than its predecessor.98 Electrifying the Powerless Acountry renowned for marathon runners is setting a fast pace for the adoption of a new technology. Until the late 1980s, solar electrification in Kenya and other parts of East Africa was limited to affluent households and a handful of donor projects. Little in the way of government or interna- tional agency subsidies or support was provided, and the national Rural Electrification Program had connected less than 2 percent of rural households to the power grid. But falling PV costs and the efforts of private and volunteer orga- nizations to provide communities with information and training fostered a vibrant commercial market with dozens of homegrown assembly, sales, installation, and mainte- nance companies.99 Today, Kenya boasts the largest per capita PV penetra- tion rate in the world, with more than 100,000 systems sold, and sales averaging 20,000 modules per year. More than 200,000 Kenyans are being served with solar systems that are mostly 10 to 14 watts in size. PV market growth is outpacing grid connections under the official program, as rural electri- cians and Nairobi-based entrepreneurs and equipment sup- pliers compete vigorously. Providing a cheap, reliable alternative to kerosene, the program is also attracting lower- income people who have been waiting indefinitely for grid extension. Kenyan marketers now receive World Bank sup- port, and efforts are being made to replicate Kenya’s solar success elsewhere in the developing world.100 For all the remarkable generation-cost declines it achieved during the last century, the central, large-scale elec- trical model has yet to become cheap enough to reach 1.8 billion people living in rural parts of the developing world. Government rural electrification programs have provided grid electricity to more than 1.3 billion in developing nations since 1970, bringing the total to nearly 2 billion with access to power. (See Table 7.) But the majority of connec- tions have occurred in or near urban areas, and in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the rate of electrification has not kept up with population growth.101 If China’s electrification program is excluded, the share of rural people worldwide without power, 33 percent, has remained the same since 1980. In many regions, the extension of the electrical grid, which is typically the only approach con- sidered, has been regarded as too expensive, costing as much as $10,000 per kilometer. Nor does village access necessarily mean household access: 80 percent of India’s villages are elec- trified but a far smaller percentage of homes have power. Consequently, a number of nations have sizable rural-urban disparities in access to power. (See Table 8.)102 This inequity in electrical access creates several prob- lems. It is highly detrimental to the health, standards of liv- ing, and future economic prospects of the rural poor, forcing them either to do without lighting and power or to rely on kerosene lanterns and diesel generators. It also poses the risk of social unrest. The issue of rural power is thus rising on the agenda of developing-nation decisionmakers who must con-PDF Image | Micropower: The Next Electrical Era
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