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APPENDIX B-1 Estimation of Regional Grid Emissions EPA has long recognized that clean energy technologies have the potential for significant emission reductions through displaced generation. However, a robust and analytically sound method to quantify the potential of displaced emissions has yet to be developed. Displaced generation is defined as the total electrical output (measured in kWh) from conventional electricity sources that is either displaced by or avoided through the implementation of energy-efficient measures. Displaced emissions is defined as the change in emissions (measured in lb) that results when conventional electrical generation is displaced by energy-efficient measures. On-site power generation with a distributed energy technology is an example of a clean energy source, provided its emissions are less than conventional sources. DG-CHP systems can result in displaced generation and ultimately displace emissions. Several different methods have been developed and employed by various organizations to estimate emissions displaced by on-site electricity generation. There are many variations of such methodologies and they are all derived from the average emission rate method—the marginal unit method—or historical emissions-generation data. • The average emission rate method uses the average emission rate of electricity generating units in a particular region or nationally. It is usually based on the average emission characteristics of all electricity-generating units or fossil-fired units only. It is often derived from historic generation and emissions data or projections of future generation and fuel use patterns. This approach is most widely used due to its simplicity and wide availability of average rates for many U.S. regions. Unfortunately, there is little or no correlation between the average emission rate and the emission rate at which the emissions are displaced by energy-efficient measures. The result is that estimates of emissions impacts can be inaccurate and may not adequately reflect the realities of power markets. • The marginal-unit method is an attempt to improve on the average emission rate approach by identifying a particular unit or type of unit that may be displaced. Similar to the average emission rate method, the average emission characteristics of the displaced units are applied to total electricity saved to estimate displaced emissions. The marginal unit method assumes that at any point in time the marginal unit, by virtue of being the most expensive generating unit to operate, will be the unit that is displaced. Although this approach conceptually appears to be more reasonable than simply using an average emission rate, identifying the marginal unit is difficult, particularly in regions with large and frequent variations in hourly electricity demand. B-1 SRI/USEPA-GHG-VR-27 September 2003PDF Image | Environmental Technology Verification Report
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