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5 Table 10: Eight Barriers to Micropower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 52 Table 11: Ten Micropower Market Accelerators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 54 Table 12: World Bank Group Initiatives—Micropower Projects and Startups in Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. 61 Figure 1: World Gas Turbine Price and Cumulative Installed Capacity, 1956–81 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. 18 Figure 2: World Photovoltaic Price and Cumulative Shipments, 1980–99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. 27 Figure 3: Schematic of a Centralized Power System. . . . . . . . . . .. .. 42 Figure 4: Schematic of a Distributed Power System. . . . . . . . . . .. .. 43 Figure 5: Venture Capital Investment, U.S. Telecommunications Industry, 1970–98. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. 58 Figure 6: Venture Capital Investment, U.S. Electric Power Industry, 1970–98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 59 Introduction When Wall Street analysts stepped back from the Internet “’99 dot-com rush” to survey potential invest- ments elsewhere in the economy in 2000, they converged on a seemingly unlikely candidate. “Don’t look now, but utilities could be one of the hot new investment opportunities,” pro- claimed Business Week. Venture Capital Journal was even more bullish, declaring the electricity industry “the next big thing.” Much of the attention focused on “micropower” technologies that are smaller than today’s typical generators.1 Other writers and analysts picked up on these pro- nouncements, and in the following weeks shares of several companies manufacturing two types of small-scale power generators—fuel cells and solar photovoltaics—shot up, some as much as sevenfold. Even after a subsequent stock market decline, most of these shares remained well above pre-surge levels. Investment banks, meanwhile, scrambled to set up power technology divisions and to court the companies developing these technologies; before long, “venture” fund- ing rounds for the new firms had become oversubscribed.2 Thomas Alva Edison would be delighted. The prolific inventor and father of the modern electrical age was well aware of the need to raise large amounts of capital to support his young power-and-lighting company. Impressing money men, in fact, was a major reason for locating his first power station in New York City’s Wall Street district in 1882. Just as J. P. Morgan underwrote Edison’s 257 Pearl Street station and later projects, today’s financiers are beginning to infuse the next generation of power technology startups with levels of ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: I have had, as Edison liked to say, “a streak of luck” with the support of many in preparing this paper. Chris Flavin, my energy (and energetic) mentor, offered guidance from beginning to end. I am also grateful to Thomas Ackermann, Richard Hirsh, Nick Lenssen, Amory Lovins, Art Mannion, Eric Martinot, Lew Milford, David Moskovitz, Walt Patterson, Karl Rabago, Adam Serchuk, and Robert Shaw for their comments on a review draft. Interns Gerard Alleng and Lei Liu diligently tracked developments and data. Liz Doherty, Dick Bell, Mary Caron, and Liz Hopper provided production and outreach support. And Jane Peterson helped to bring it all togeth- er, smoothing out the rough spots and stripping out the jargon. This paper is dedicated to my grandmothers, Virginia Crane Anderson and Susan Gage Dunn: artists, environmentalists, and living proof that good things do indeed come in small packages. SETH DUNN is a Research Associate at Worldwatch Institute, where he investigates energy and climate issues. He is coauthor of Worldwatch Paper 138, Rising Sun, Gathering Winds: Policies to Stabilize the Climate and Strengthen Economies, and three chapters in State of the World. He received a B.A. in history and studies in the environment from Yale University.PDF Image | Micropower: The Next Electrical Era
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